BT Technology Journal: Positive feedback
Technology development includes a large measure of positive feedback. As we get faster and better computers, we have more assistance in doing science and developing new technologies, in every field. Many of the consequential new discoveries and technology developments then have an impact on progress in computer technology. The rate of technology development accelerates. Technology acceleration will continue for decades, as we are a long way from fundamental limits in most fields. In areas where we are limited by our intelligence, ultrasmart computers will eventually take over, and they themselves are liable to technology feedback. This double exponential rise in capability means that at some point, the rate of development will be so rapid it will be as if extraterrestrials had landed and given us all their technologies. We will see more development in a decade than in the previous millennium. We do not know exactly when this ‘singularity’ will occur but it will probably be in the next three decades. The 2020s might well be a golden decade for technology. The downside is that we are unlikely to be able to predict the consequences of the developments sufficiently to guard against negative effects. The ecosystem, environment, economic stability and social systems might all take a severe battering.