BT Technology Journal: What's next? Graduality
Excerpt: "Technology mostly develops gradually, so gradually in fact that many people tell me that nothing much has changed over the last decade. Yet a decade ago, they were probably not using a PC, or cellphone, satellite TV, or even a fax, let alone a Palm Pilot or DVD drive. People quickly forget what things used to be like. In the same way, attitudes change gradually, yet over a few years they can change dramatically. We have seen almost an inversion of morality in just two decades in several fields. Many things that were socially unacceptable are now fashionable. Although GM and cloning are considered by most people to be undesirable, very soon they could be universally accepted and anyone criticising them will be considered an oppressor, a bigot, or backward. Even nuclear power may make a comeback and be considered environmentally friendly. But such graduality is a danger because it means that with sufficient marketing expertise and enough time, almost any new technology or social attitude change can be rolled out. Whatever reservations we may have today about any new or potential technologies, we cannot be certain that they will be rejected for long.